Earlier this week, we broke down why the Seattle Mariners landed a bargain by signing free agent backstop Chris Iannetta. While Iannetta looks like a prime bounce-back candidate, the reason why new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto brought in a new catcher in the first place is much less cheery. Incumbent starter Mike Zunino, selected third overall out of Florida in the 2012 draft, might be whiffing his way into oblivion.
Zunino was expected to develop into one of the game’s rarest commodities: a catcher as adept at swatting home runs as receiving pitches and gunning out runners. Zunino has excelled defensively (his pitch-framing skills saved +12 runs in 2015 compared to an average catcher, per StatCorner), and his power has been on display at times (he has 38 career homers in 1,055 plate appearances). But despite possessing strength that few catchers can match, the 24-year-old has been an offensive zero: Zunino’s career park-and-league-adjusted OPS is 29% below the MLB average (71 OPS+). Among catchers getting at least 750 PA over the 2013-15 seasons, only J.P. Arencibia (70 OPS+) racked up outs more frequently.
We might be in the midst of the Strikeout Era, but Zunino’s career K rate (32.1%) is extreme even by today’s standards. Only Chris Carter (33.7% K rate), Tyler Flowers (33.1%) and Drew Stubbs (32.2%) have punched out more often over the past three seasons among qualified batters.
It’s hard to pin down a particular weakness for Zunino in terms of making contact — he either lashes pitches, or misses entirely. Against “hard” stuff — fastballs, sinkers, cutters and splitters, Zunino’s 29% miss rate from 2013-15 was tenth-highest among qualified batters. Against soft pitches — curves, sliders and changeups — he whiffed at the 18th-highest rate among batters (43.5%). He whiffed high (33%, 22% MLB average) and low (47%, 31% MLB average), and when pitchers left one down the middle of the plate. In fact, his boom-or-bust tendencies are magnified on those center-cut offerings: Zunino has a career .509 slugging percentage against middle-of-the-plate pitches, but has also swung and missed at them nearly twice as often (24%) as the average major leaguer (13%).
Zunino hasn’t displayed much plate patience during his brief career either (5.1% walk rate), so he has struck out more than six times as often as he has taken ball four. His 0.16 walk-to-strikeout ratio is dead last among qualified batters from 2013-15. In fact, his lack of strike-zone control is nearly unprecedented during the Expansion Era. Since 1961, the only batters to post a lower career BB/K ratio than Zunino (minimum 1,000 PA) are Rob Picciolo (0.10), Ivan Murrell (0.13) and Miguel Olivo (0.15).
J.P. Arencibia, Miguel Olivo…these weren’t exactly the career comps that the Mariners had in mind when they selected Zunino ahead of players like Corey Seager, Addison Russell, Michael Wacha and Marcus Stroman back in 2012. The former Gator is a strong pitch-framer, and possesses raw power that few catchers can rival. But unless he can make some drastic changes, Zunino’s career might be swallowed up by a lack of contact.