As a quality defensive backstop who possesses epic power, Mike Zunino could be a franchise cornerstone. But as a guy whose feats of strength are surpassed only by his ability to rack up outs at the plate, the former third overall pick in the draft could also swing his way out of the Seattle Mariners’ good graces.
Zunino has popped 21 home runs this season, but he has done so with the fifth-lowest on base percentage (.255) among any 20-homer hitter in MLB history. Only Tony Armas (36 homers with a .254 OBP in 1983), Marquis Grissom (21 HR, .250 OBP in 2001), Vernon Wells (25 HR, .248 OBP in 2011) and J.P. Arencibia (21 HR, .227 OBP in 2013) displayed such power with so little patience.
The appearance on that list of Arencibia — currently hacking his way out of the majors with the Rangers — should send chills down the spines of M’s fans. Like Zunino, Arencibia was once a golden boy first-rounder who starred at a big-time Southeastern Conference school (Florida for Zunino, Tennessee for Arencibia). He throttled minor league pitching and garnered top-50 prospect honors, but poor strike-zone control has done him in at the major league level.
Zunino, still just 23, has plenty of time to avoid an Arencibia-like fate. But his wretched plate approach — he has struck out more than nine times as often (154 Ks) as he has walked (17) — needs a serious overhaul. To change that, Zunino should start with covering the bottom third of the strike zone.
Zunino crushes belt-high pitches (.540 slugging percentage) and holds his own against high stuff (.394), but he’s helpless when pitchers pound him at the knees (.275). There’s a two-fold reason for his struggles against bottom-third stuff: He chases lots of low pitches, and he comes up empty on those offerings more than any other hitter in the game.
Seattle’s backstop is swinging at 36% of low pitches thrown out of the strike zone, well north of the 28-29% MLB average. When pitchers toss him a low pitch, they’ve got a 50-50 shot of generating a whiff.
Zunino’s contact rate by pitch location
Zunino has a 51% miss rate versus low pitches in 2014, blowing away (in a bad way) competitors such as Giancarlo Stanton (48%), Brandon Moss (47.5%) and Chris Johnson (47.2%). Opponents might have taken notice of his low-pitch woes, increasing their rate of lower-third pitches to Zunino from 40.5% in the first half to 44% after the All-Star break.
Power-hitting catchers who can actually, you know, catch, are gold in this game. But even with Zunino’s pop, there comes a point where a guy’s making so many outs in between those home run trots that he erases his offensive value. Zunino’s not Arencibia — at least not yet. But he’s got to control the zone — especially the bottom of it — for his career to blossom, rather than bottom out.